Sensing the Future of Value Creation
The way we produce and consume energy, food, mobility, housing, and goods is part of complex socio-technical systems. When these systems function properly, stable patterns of value creation emerge. However, global trends such as climate change, digitalization, and geopolitical upheavals, as well as sudden shocks—such as the coronavirus pandemic or Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine—reveal the vulnerability of the status quo.
The Value Creation Radar project understands value creation as part of dynamic systems in which technological, social, and ecological developments influence each other. The aim is not only to respond to crises, but also to identify systemic transformation processes at an early stage and actively help shape them.
This is where the project comes in: it investigates how weak signals for changes in value creation can be identified and interpreted. An AI-supported horizon scanning process is being developed that systematically analyzes technological, social, and ecological developments. The focus is on a “radar tool” that uses automated text analysis to help experts identify relevant patterns – from the first signs of change to potential areas of innovation.
The project thus contributes to early detection, strengthening social resilience, and shaping sustainable innovations. It is funded by the Federal Ministry of Research, Technology, and Space (BMFTR) .
Project objectives
Early trend identification for innovation and resilience strategies
- Development of an AI-supported horizon scanning process for the early detection of changes in value creation
- Combination of quantitative and qualitative methods for identifying weak signals
- Focus on socio-technical systems in areas such as energy, mobility, nutrition, housing, and goods production
- Development of a radar tool for the automated analysis of large amounts of text from various sources (e.g., specialist literature, media, reports)
- Integration of expert knowledge for contextualization and evaluation of identified topics
- Iterative combination of machine evaluation and human interpretation to derive relevant developments
- Contribution to sustainable innovation design, resilience promotion, and strategic decision-making
Motivation
Recent crises, from the coronavirus pandemic to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, have exposed key weaknesses in our value creation systems: dependence on fossil fuels, fragile supply chains, slow digitalization. At the same time, new social practices, technologies, and business models are emerging that hold potential for change.
The Value Creation Radar project aims to make these transformation dynamics visible in order to strengthen social resilience, promote sustainable innovation, and expand the strategic capacity for action of politics, business, and civil society.
Key results
- Development and testing of an AI-supported horizon scanning process for the early detection of changes in value creation
- Structuring the methodology in three phases: scoping, screening, and sensemaking
- Development of a radar tool for the automated analysis of large amounts of unstructured text (e.g., abstracts, articles, reports)
- Identification of initial weak signals for trends of change in relevant sectors such as energy, mobility, nutrition, housing, and goods production
- Iterative combination of AI-supported evaluation and human expertise for relevance assessment and contextualization
- Initial derivation of relevance criteria and reflection on the limitations of purely technical evaluation
- Strengthening the ability of system actors to respond to changes at an early stage and recognize innovation potential
- Contribution to the development of more robust, sustainable, and adaptable value creation systems
Project consortium
Dictionary
value creation
Value creation describes the process by which goods, services, or solutions that are considered “valuable” – economically, socially, or ecologically – are created in a society. This can be a manufactured machine, but also a shared space or a digital service. Value creation is not just a matter for industry: it takes place wherever something is created that is meaningful to other people. In a time of multiple crises, it is important to rethink value creation: locally, sustainably, and resiliently.
Horizon scanning
Horizon scanning is a systematic process for identifying future topics and dynamics of change. The aim is not to react to crises, but to proactively observe and interpret developments. In the Value Creation Radar project, horizon scanning is carried out with the help of AI and combined with human judgment.
Weak signals
Weak signals are early, often barely visible indications of possible changes in complex systems. They frequently occur on the fringes of public discourse, for example in small research projects, blogs, or niche practices, and can provide initial indications of new trends, risks, or opportunities. Those who recognize them can assess developments at an early stage and perhaps even help shape them.
Project title & duration
- Value creation radar
- Funding amount: ~€3 million (of which ~€500,000 is for HSU/UniBw H)
- supported by Projektträger Karlsruhe
- Jan 2022 – Dec 2026
further links
Funding
